The Funded Ratio

A series applying pension fund mathematics to individual retirement portfolios. Start at Post 1 — the argument builds.

1. 01
   Your Retirement Number Is Wrong

   Your FI number — 25× annual spending — is not a measurement.

2. 02
   Why Monte Carlo Is Theatre

   Your financial planner ran 10,000 simulations and told you there is a 92% probability of success.

3. 03
   You Have a Six-Figure Asset You're Not Counting

   If you are American and have worked for ten years, you own an asset worth $200,000 to $500,000.

4. 04
   Your Retirement Fund Has Bad Beta

   When your portfolio drops 30%, your instinct is: "I'll ride it out." Sometimes you're right.

5. 05
   The 15-Year Mismatch You Don't Know About

   Your retirement portfolio has a duration of 3–5 years.

6. 06
   Inflation Is the Risk Nobody Hedges

   Ask investors what they're hedged against and you'll hear: crashes, recessions, rates. Ask about unexpected inflation and you'll hear silence.

7. 07
   What Interest Rates Actually Do to Your Retirement

   Between 2000 and 2020, the real interest rate on 20-year US government bonds fell from 4% to 0%.

8. 08
   Why Property Feels Safe but Isn't

   Real estate is the FIRE community's comfort food.

9. 09
   Your Funded Ratio Is Not Your Net Worth

   Jane Austen described Mr. Darcy not by his capital but by his income — "ten thousand a year". She measured wealth in the right units. Your net worth doesn't.

10. 10
    The One Number That Matters

    The capstone: one framework, one number, one calculation you can do today — the funded ratio, computed the way pension funds compute it.

Bonus

1. 11
   Bonus: Die With Zero Is Right — and It Needs Better Math

   Bill Perkins made the most important argument in personal finance in a decade: money you die with is money you wasted.

2. 12
   Bonus: You Can't Eat Expected Returns

   Your financial planner discounts your retirement spending at 7% — the "expected return" on a balanced portfolio.